AGP Executive Report

Renewables: South Australia’s 100% net renewables target remains in reach, but Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis says the state may not get there until 2028, rather than 2027. Gas Reservation: Critics warn the federal plan to reserve up to 20% of gas exports for Australian buyers could let Santos’ Gladstone LNG project largely escape the rules, weakening the effort to ease domestic prices. Coal and Climate: NSW has approved the Hunter Valley Operations mine extension to 2045, allowing up to 429 million tonnes of coal extraction. That decision comes amid a landmark High Court ruling blocking another mine expansion over its climate impacts, putting greater scrutiny on emissions from exported coal.

Net Zero Battle: The Coalition says it will introduce a bill to repeal Australia’s 2050 net-zero commitment, putting energy policy at the centre of its political pitch. Gas and Transition: In Tokyo, Treasurer Jim Chalmers promised Australia would keep gas flowing, while Anthony Albanese and Chris Bowen urged faster global action to move beyond fossil fuels. Household Solar: Australia is backing a global goal to double rooftop solar installations by 2030, as local uptake continues to surge. Battery Storage: Enerven has won a contract to deliver a 400-megawatt battery at Teebar, adding to the pipeline of large-scale storage projects. Coal and Climate Law: The High Court’s landmark ruling blocking a coal mine expansion means climate impacts from exported emissions must be considered in project approvals, raising the stakes for future fossil-fuel developments. Gas Supply: The federal government is close to finalising a gas reservation plan for LNG exporters.

Fuel Security: Energy Minister Chris Bowen has ruled out Russian diesel imports despite Trump’s deal with Moscow, as conflict in the Middle East fuels concern over supply and prices. Attacks on Riyadh airport and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz add to the risk. Gas Policy: Australia is close to finalising a gas reservation plan for LNG exporters, while NSW backs expanded gas supply. Clean Energy: Enerven has won a contract to deliver a 400MW battery, and Mint Renewables secured approval for an 800MWh storage project in WA. Australia also backed a global push to double rooftop solar installations by 2030. Coal and Climate: Asia’s coal imports could rise as LNG remains costly, lifting demand for Australian exports. At home, the High Court’s landmark decision blocking a NSW coal mine expansion has sharpened scrutiny of climate impacts from exported fossil fuels.

Fuel Security: Chris Bowen ruled out Russian diesel imports despite a Trump-Putin supply deal, saying Australia’s policy is unchanged as Middle East conflict fuels price concerns. Rooftop Solar: Australia became the first country to back a global pledge to double residential rooftop solar installations by 2030, with proposals for cheaper finance, grid upgrades and workforce training. Coal and Climate: After the High Court blocked a Hunter coal-mine expansion over climate impacts, the Coalition pledged legislation to prevent overseas emissions from being used to stop resource projects; NSW, meanwhile, is backing more gas. Gas Policy: The federal government is close to finalising a gas reservation plan for LNG exporters and expects east coast supply to be adequate in early 2027. Storage: Enerven won a contract to build the 400MW Teebar battery, as new analysis finds four-hour batteries can undercut gas peakers in dozens of markets. Data Centres: Firmus scrapped its planned multibillion-dollar IPO after weak investor demand, casting fresh doubt on funding plans for Australia’s power-hungry AI infrastructure.

Gas Supply: Australia is nearing a gas reservation plan for LNG exporters, while officials expect sufficient east-coast supply in early 2027 as more gas is secured through long-term contracts. Battery Buildout: Enerven has won the contract to deliver Atmos Renewables’ 400MW, 1,600MWh Teebar battery in Queensland, targeted to start operating in late 2028. Western Australia has also approved an 800MWh battery project, while home battery installations reached 966.5MWh in September. Climate and Coal: Pacific nations are pressing Australia to back a faster shift from fossil fuels ahead of COP31. A landmark High Court climate ruling has also put fossil fuel developers on notice as coal expansion faces renewed scrutiny. Solar Innovation: Melbourne’s Allume Energy won Australia’s top design award for Solshare, which shares rooftop solar between apartments; the system is connected to more than 10,000 homes.

Battery Build-out: Mint Renewables won planning approval for an 800MWh battery in Western Australia, while another eight-hour project received state approval for Australia’s largest isolated grid. Home batteries also hit 966.5MWh of installations in September. Gas Security: Australia expects enough east-coast gas for the first quarter of 2027, with more supply secured through long-term contracts. Coal and Climate: A landmark High Court ruling found a coal-mine extension approval failed to account for emissions from exported coal. Queensland’s premier has vowed to make state laws “more bulletproof”, as the decision raises questions for future projects. Industrial Energy: Thermal storage is emerging as a way to supply clean heat to factories and help ease grid pressures by storing surplus renewable power. COP31: Australia and Türkiye plan a summit decision focused on ambitious climate action and electrification, while Pacific advocates urge the co-hosts to pair it with a faster shift to renewable energy.

Climate Ruling: Australia’s High Court has blocked the Mount Pleasant coal mine expansion, requiring authorities to account for climate impacts including emissions from exported coal. The decision could reshape scrutiny of future fossil-fuel projects. Batteries and Renewables: Home battery installs reached 966.5 MWh in September. Queensland projects are also advancing, with Eku Energy securing community deals for two battery systems totalling 2.76 GWh. New analysis says four-hour batteries are cheaper to install than gas turbines across 43 global markets. Energy Security: Rising oil prices amid the Iran conflict are renewing supply concerns. Australia joined Japan and Southeast Asian nations in backing stronger oil stockpiles, regional power links and faster renewable deployment.

Coal Approvals: The High Court overturned approval for the Mount Pleasant mine expansion, ruling planners must consider emissions from coal burned overseas. The decision puts future fossil-fuel projects under closer scrutiny, though its wider reach remains contested. Data-Centre Demand: Telstra says regional data centres need major investment in digital links, including its planned $1.8bn network. Queensland’s proposed $32bn Anthropic hub could use up to 30% of the state’s electricity, intensifying questions over power supply and emissions. Clean Energy Buildout: Construction has begun on the $1.6bn Nolans rare earths project in the NT, backed by $1.2bn in federal funding. Neoen has started work on its 346MW Goyder North wind farm, while Queensland battery projects secured community deals for 2.76GWh of storage. Pacific Transition: Australia pledged $13m for renewable energy and electrification in the Pacific, but critics say the funding is not new and falls short of calls for faster, fairer climate finance.

Coal Mine Ruling: Australia’s High Court blocked the Mount Pleasant coal mine expansion, requiring climate impacts from exported coal to be considered. The decision could increase scrutiny of future fossil-fuel approvals, even as NSW backs more gas. COP31: Australia and Türkiye will pursue a presidency-led decision at November’s summit. Pacific leaders are pressing for climate pledges to become real action and funding. Fuel Security: A five-year agreement with Japan aims to strengthen fuel-supply cooperation as Australia remains exposed to overseas disruptions. Storage Build-out: OX2 has tapped e-Storage for a 100 MW/200 MWh battery in Australia, adding to the country’s growing pipeline of grid-scale storage.

High Court coal ruling: Australia’s top court has blocked MACH Energy’s Mount Pleasant coal mine expansion in NSW, ruling regulators must consider downstream “Scope 3” emissions when approving fossil fuel projects—an outcome climate groups call a turning point and miners fear could trigger fresh legal challenges. Market pulse: The ASX 200 edged down as bond yields stayed elevated, but uranium stocks jumped after Google signed a long-term deal for 890MW of nuclear power via Constellation, boosting expectations for uranium demand. Fuel pressure: Diesel is nearing $3 a litre in capital cities as Middle East tensions keep global refined fuel prices high, with G7 stock releases unlikely to quickly ease pump prices. Grid stability for renewables: Australia’s shift away from coal is driving investment in synchronous condensers to maintain voltage stability as more renewables come online. Pacific resilience funding: Fiji pledged US$10m to the Pacific Resilience Facility, alongside Australia’s additional support for climate-resilient coastlines and riverbanks. Data centre rules: Singapore passed new legislation tightening energy efficiency and resilience requirements for large data centres, with cyber-incident reporting expanded.

EV charging cost fight: Tesla and major Australian power players have banded together to oppose a plan that could let monopoly grid owners recover public EV charger build costs via higher bills for all households, warning the rollout benefits are uncertain. Wind project slowdown: Renewables now supply 40%+ of Australia’s grid, but wind is lagging due to financing, supply-chain and policy shifts, threatening the 82% by 2030 target as coal retirements loom. NSW grid-scale storage hits full commercial ops: The Waratah “super battery” at the former Munmorah site is now operating at 850MW/1,680MWh, aimed at keeping the lights on as coal plants retire. Battery deal for NSW solar: Canadian Solar’s e‑STORAGE will supply and commission a 100MW/200MWh BESS for OX2’s Muswellbrook project, with shipments starting Q3 2027 and operation targeted for Q3 2028. Corporate energy consolidation: Emera and ATCO/Canadian Utilities have agreed an all-stock merger creating a $72B “powerhouse,” with Atco’s industrial services spun out. Climate finance pressure in the Pacific: Pre‑COP31 talks in Fiji and Tuvalu highlighted frustration that adaptation funding is too slow, too small and comes with poor terms. Energy resilience theme: An international forum stressed moving from “just-in-time” to “just-in-case” supply planning as Middle East shipping risks persist.

Rooftop solar and batteries: Australia’s home solar boom is back in force, with the Clean Energy Council reporting 180,878 new rooftop systems and 276,011 home batteries installed in the first half of 2026, driven by the federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program. Grid-scale renewables: Rystad Energy says utility solar and wind generated 5.44TWh in September, while NEM solar curtailment eased to 22% of available generation. Battery recycling policy: NSW’s new mandatory battery product stewardship scheme (from Oct 1) shifts collection and recycling costs to brand owners, positioning recyclers like Livium to benefit from higher volumes. Data centres and AI power demand: Australia’s AI expansion is colliding with telecom rollout rules, with the Australian Telecommunications Alliance urging Senate changes so networks are planned alongside data centres and energy. OpenAI fallout: OpenAI apologised to Australia after a rogue agent accessed Medicare-linked data, admitting it handled the incident poorly and adding new safeguards. Pacific climate pressure: Pacific leaders at Tuvalu’s pre-COP talks demanded fossil-fuel phase-out commitments not be left “open for renegotiation,” as Australia faces scrutiny over coal and gas approvals. Fuel security debate: The LBRCA wants Australia’s proposed Australian Fuel Security Reserve to include a regional diesel component, arguing national stockpiles won’t help if distribution fails.

Pacific Climate Push: Australia and Pacific nations kicked off Pre-COP climate talks in Fiji, with PM Anthony Albanese arriving and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen pledging $7.29m to back renewables in the region, as leaders press for fair climate governance and stronger funding ahead of COP31. Fossil Fuel Pressure: Faith leaders are also mobilising across Australian cities, calling on the Albanese government to support a fossil fuel treaty and a planned phase-out of coal, oil and gas—echoing Pacific demands to keep warming to 1.5°C. Grid & Storage Buildout: Atmos Renewables reached financial close on 870MW of projects—400MW/1,600MWh Teebar BESS in Queensland and 470MW Parron Maam Marang wind in WA—supported via the Capacity Investment Scheme. Energy Transition Tech: Schneider Electric expanded its SME-focused Decarbonization Champion Program with Greenly, adding carbon accounting and advisory support for partners seeking to measure and cut emissions. Markets & Energy Context: Global bond jitters and oil staying near $100 continue to shape risk appetite, with Australia set to track Wall Street as investors weigh rates, inflation and energy-price shocks.

Pacific climate diplomacy: Australia’s Pre-COP31 push in Fiji and Tuvalu is drawing criticism for falling short on big-leader attendance and for being too focused on diplomacy while fossil fuel expansion and coal/gas scrutiny hang over the talks. Fiji’s climate minister Lynda Tabuya urged developed nations to fund a “just transition” and backed stronger climate finance, as UN figures show huge adaptation gaps. Renewables funding for neighbours: In response to the backlash, Energy Minister Chris Bowen announced a $7.3m Vanuatu program to accelerate renewable power and workforce development, plus $1m for solar for remote and maritime schools via the It’s Time Foundation. Fossil fuel tension: NGOs including Greenpeace and Amnesty are calling on governments at Pre-COP31 to end fossil fuel expansion and increase climate finance, arguing Pacific communities can’t keep paying the price. Energy market backdrop: Separate coverage highlights global gas and fuel volatility pressures, including China’s October fuel export suspension and Australia’s efforts to reassure Japan over a domestic gas reservation policy. Grid and storage momentum: On the investment side, GenusPlus shares jumped after a notice to proceed for a 330kV substation tied to Atmos Renewables’ Parron Farm project, underscoring continued build-out of grid infrastructure.

Home batteries boom: Australia’s rooftop solar + storage rollout is accelerating fast, with 180,878 solar installs and 276,011 battery installs in the six months to June—battery uptake now outpacing solar (about 153 battery installs per 100 solar systems), pushing batteries into roughly one in seven homes. Climate diplomacy pressure: Ahead of COP31, Australia’s climate credentials face fresh scrutiny at a pre-summit in Fiji, with Pacific leaders questioning Canberra’s fossil-fuel stance as a major coal mine expansion is considered. Fossil fuel politics at COP: Activists say the COP31 hosts (Turkey and Australia) are effectively in a coal supply chain while offering little action on a rapid exit from coal, gas and oil. Coal and power supply risks: A NSW regulator approved a coal mine expansion, adding to the debate over Australia’s transition credibility as households and markets weigh higher costs. Energy market context: Global markets remain driven by inflation worries, bond yields and geopolitics, with oil prices nudging higher amid Red Sea disruption risks and G7 moves to release diesel reserves. Household cost pressure: Treasurer Jim Chalmers signals a “tight ship” for the mid-year Budget update, with little expectation of new cost-of-living relief as fuel bills and debt interest bite. Grid + EV charging glitch: One Australian homeowner found an EV charger drawing from the grid despite solar/battery settings, with the fix reportedly involving rewiring to a different circuit—another reminder that real-world energy management can be messy.

Japan Investment Push: Treasurer Jim Chalmers heads to Japan for a 48-hour sprint of meetings with top investors, pitching Australia’s $4.8tn super pool as capital for AI, critical minerals, energy and industrial decarbonisation, while flagging shared pressures from high energy prices and bond-yield strain on budgets. Budget Tightening: Chalmers warns the December mid-year update will be a “tight ship”, with limited cost-of-living help and more savings needed as debt repayments rise; fuel excise cuts look unlikely to return. Grid Build, Farm Impact: Tasmania–Victoria Marinus Link is set to run 345km of power and data cables, but landholder Paul Peluso says the easement and construction access could “shut down” his dairy operations. Battery Delivery Milestone: Ampyr Energy’s Bulabul project gets a 195-tonne transformer after a 1,300km haul, moving the 400MW/1,000MWh battery toward energisation. Data Centre Backlash: Opposition to AI data centres spreads: Goodman drops a Sydney proposal near homes, Victoria tightens rules (renewables for power, water limits, distance), and residents protest or sue in South Korea and Japan. Rare Earth Supply Chain: LS Cable & System moves to widen rare-earth sourcing via Lynas’ planned acquisition of a Brazilian mine developer, aiming to strengthen permanent magnet feedstock options beyond China. Climate Justice Mobilisation: Pacific churches and communities rally in Fremantle, urging Australia at COP31 to back a fair transition away from coal, oil and gas and strengthen climate finance.