AGP Executive Report

Grid & bills: The Australian Energy Regulator says default electricity prices should fall for many NSW and south-east Qld households from July, but the big catch is most customers aren’t on standing offers, so retailers may not pass through the cuts. Power system planning: AEMO’s latest 10-year grid blueprint flags that rooftop batteries are cutting the need for new transmission, yet overall investment still needs to be about $106b to keep the system on track to net zero by 2050, while data-centre and business demand could still lift total grid usage. Demand drivers: AEMO also warns household electricity use could drop as batteries spread, but overall demand may rise as energy-hungry data centres scale up. Market & policy pressure: Energy retailers are on notice over pricing conduct, and governments and businesses are pushing electrification initiatives in response to the energy crisis. Industry deals: Woodside has signed domestic gas supply arrangements with Alcoa, adding to the week’s focus on gas security and transition pathways.

Rare Earths Push: American Rare Earths adds veteran mine builder Matthew Gili to its board as it drives the Halleck Creek project toward construction and a planned Nasdaq compliance listing in H2 2026. Critical Minerals R&D: Victory Metals wins $350,000 in non-dilutive federal funding for rare earths processing research at its Perth pilot plant, backed by Curtin University and partners. Wind Contract Clarity: Federal energy minister Chris Bowen says struggling wind developers can re-bid, but can’t renegotiate contracts after finance and transmission delays stall projects. Retailer Misconduct Probe: Energy minister Chris Bowen refers energy retailers to the consumer watchdog over reports of price hikes despite expected Default Market Offer reductions from 1 July. Inflation & Power Costs: Australia’s May CPI eases to 4.0% but trimmed mean core inflation rises to 3.6%, keeping pressure on the RBA and raising the risk of further rate hikes. Market Mood: ASX sentiment steadies after the inflation print, while oil cools and global tech jitters keep investors cautious. Solar Recycling Warning: UNSW research flags that shifting solar panel materials (from silver to base metals) could complicate future recycling economics. Gas Margin Focus: Australian Oil Company targets lower California gas costs to protect margins as it maintains production at Stoney Creek.

Urban Data Centres Pact: Mayors from 40 major cities, including Melbourne, have signed a Global Pact for Urban Data Centres to curb pressure on power, water and local communities, setting standards for low-carbon energy use, community protection and planning that avoids reopening or extending fossil plants. Climate Accountability in Courts: An Australian group has taken a landmark UN legal case alleging Australia’s coal and gas exports violate human rights, arguing extreme weather impacts are linked to government support for fossil fuel expansion. Grid-Ready Solar Tech: SMA has launched a Stability Enhanced DC Coupled Hybrid Solution with grid-forming inverter and management software, aiming to make solar-plus-storage projects more resilient and bankable, with initial availability in Australia, Germany and the UK. Gas Shipping Watch: Strait of Hormuz traffic is picking up again as US-Iran talks progress, with more crude and LNG tankers transiting and a sanctions waiver easing supply-risk fears. Electrification Push: At London Climate Action Week, COP32-designate Gedion Timothewos backed a push to lift global electrification to 35% of final energy by 2035, warning financing costs and regulatory risk are still the main bottlenecks for developing economies.

Geopolitics & Markets: Oil slid on optimism around US-Iran peace talks, with the Strait of Hormuz reported open and investors watching for durability of the deal; ASX trade stayed cautious as tech weakness (including WiseTech) offset gains elsewhere. Energy Security & Climate Risk: A new UN-linked case alleges Australia’s coal and gas exports violate human rights, while a landmark complaint launched by Australians affected by catastrophic flooding argues fossil-fuel support is driving foreseeable harm. NSW Cost-of-Living & Power Bills: The NSW budget leans into relief for motorists and households, including a lower weekly toll cap, frozen Opal fares, and funding for energy-saving tech via interest-free loans—set against a still-tight fiscal outlook. AI Data Centres Push: South Australia’s Malinauskas unveiled an AI and data centre strategy, promising streamlined approvals and renewable power support as the state positions itself for major investment. Solar & Materials R&D: Australia’s solar research capability got a boost with a major ARC training centre launch focused on resource-efficient alloys in a circular economy. Grid/Industry Watch: Market coverage also flagged ongoing operational impacts in energy and refining, alongside continued investor focus on gas and LNG supply signals.

Qatar LNG Safety: A “technical incident” during restart work at QatarEnergy’s Barzan local gas supply facility in Ras Laffan sparked an explosion and fire, injuring 54 and leaving 18 missing; Qatar says export capabilities were unaffected and an investigation is underway. Middle East Energy Markets: Oil prices eased on optimism from US-Iran talks in Switzerland, with mediators describing a 60-day roadmap and a communications line to reduce risks in the Strait of Hormuz, though shipping disruption fears remain. WA Power Security: The Australian Energy Market Operator pushed back on forecasts of a looming WA power shortage, arguing the risk picture is being overstated. Tasmania Grid Deadlock: Marinus is set to break Tasmania’s “deadlock” that has constrained power access, according to an economist. Clean Energy Finance: DLA Piper research on battery storage found lenders and investors are tightening how they structure and secure revenue, with return expectations shifting toward counterparty strength. Solar Supply Chain: Australia is the guest of honour at China’s CISCE, with more than 50 Australian firms showcasing capabilities as global supply chains retool. Heat & Risk: France issued red alerts as a record-breaking heat wave drives dangerous conditions, underscoring rising climate-linked energy and public safety pressures. Gas Transition Shipping: Fortescue and CMB.TECH signed a milestone deal for 12 ammonia-capable vessels to accelerate zero-emissions shipping.

LNG Shock: Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub took a hit after an explosion at the Barzan local gas supply facility during start-up, injuring 54 and leaving 18 missing; QatarEnergy says the blast followed a “technical incident,” raising fresh questions for global gas stability. Middle East Energy Risk: Renewed US-Iran tensions and claims around the Strait of Hormuz are driving oil volatility and weighing on Australian sentiment, with the ASX expected to open lower as investors watch for any shipping disruption. Markets Watch: Multiple reports point to oil moving on Hormuz headlines—supporting energy stocks at times, but keeping broader markets cautious as inflation fears resurface. Shipping Decarb Push: Fortescue signed an agreement to charter up to 12 ammonia-capable vessels with CMB.Tech, aiming to cut shipping emissions and scale green ammonia use from late 2026. Grid & Storage Signals: South Australia’s battery fleet reportedly captured a large share of a sharp price-cap event, highlighting how storage can swing outcomes in tight markets. Policy Pressure: A premier has threatened to “name and shame” retailers that don’t pass on electricity savings, adding heat to the retail competition debate.

Fuel Relief Rollback: Australia will extend the fuel excise cut for July, keeping petrol and diesel about 16 cents per litre lower than the full rate, after earlier Middle East-linked price spikes pushed the discount to 32 cents/litre. Gas Policy Pressure: LNG producers are reportedly weighing a major concession—potential tax changes—to blunt Labor’s proposed domestic gas reservation scheme. Datacentre Boom Debate: A new hyperscale datacentre push is underway in Sydney’s west, but economists warn the country needs to get the scale right and prove productivity gains. EVs and Grid Flex: An EV and electrification expo in Noosa drew thousands, with strong interest in home batteries and vehicle-to-grid. Energy Security Watch: Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade threat is back in focus as US-Iran talks continue in Switzerland, keeping oil market volatility on the radar. Waste-to-Fuel Research: Scientists report a fast plasma process turning wet used coffee grounds into biochar and fuel, aiming to cut landfill and incineration impacts. Climate Risk Context: El Niño conditions are intensifying, with knock-on effects for food, power and household budgets.

Electricity Planning: Victoria’s grid blueprint is being rewritten to explicitly model a data-centre boom, with VicGrid’s draft 2027 transmission plan warning renewables could face multi-year delays and that gas may be needed to keep the lights on as demand growth accelerates. Fuel Relief & Inflation: The Albanese government has extended the fuel excise cut for July, but at half the discount (32¢/L down to 16¢/L), citing ongoing cost-of-living pressure and the slow flow-through from Middle East shipping disruptions. Oil Market Watch: With Iran-US talks underway in Switzerland, Iran has again claimed the Strait of Hormuz is closed, while US forces say commercial traffic continues—keeping a close eye on any renewed shipping toll risk for Australian bowser prices. Materials for Energy: Monash University researchers say slower, lower-temperature heating can produce ultra-strong alloys, potentially boosting aerospace and energy manufacturing with fewer defects and more efficient materials.

Fuel Relief Extended: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will extend Australia’s petrol excise cut into July, with petrol and diesel 16¢/L cheaper (and the Heavy Vehicle Road User Charge also reduced by 16¢) after the original June 30 expiry, as households remain under pressure despite Middle East de-escalation and Strait of Hormuz reopening that may still take time to normalise. Energy Security & Oil Flows: Reporting around the Strait of Hormuz highlights how quickly global oil and shipping conditions can swing, with markets watching whether trade disruption fully unwinds—an issue that’s directly feeding into Australia’s fuel-cost policy. Grid & Storage Momentum: Battery and grid-edge developments continue to surface, including community battery rollouts in Western Australia and new battery investment activity tied to Australia’s push to absorb more renewables. Clean Energy Funding: ARENA is backing next-generation solar capability with a further AU$95.4m boost to extend the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics to 2033, underlining ongoing support for domestic clean-tech capability. Uranium & Critical Minerals: Corporate updates include Alligator Energy advancing its Samphire uranium resource, alongside broader critical-minerals attention as Australia positions for supply-chain leverage.

Fuel Tax Decision: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is weighing whether to extend the 32c/litre fuel excise discount, with a June 30 expiry and an estimated $2.9b cost to the budget if it runs out. Climate Policy Push: At pre-COP31 talks in Bonn, Turkey and Australia-backed efforts put electrification front and centre, with a proposed goal to lift electricity’s share of final energy to 35% by 2035. Energy Security & Markets: A tentative Middle East truce has eased pressure on oil logistics via the Strait of Hormuz, but recovery timing remains uncertain—keeping fuel-price and policy decisions in focus. Industrial Projects: An Australian fertiliser plan for a Gladstone urea/AdBlue facility claims contracts for all output before construction, signalling demand pull for emissions-control inputs. Grid & Storage Industry: ARENA commits $95.4m to extend the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics to 2033, while multiple battery and virtual-battery deals highlight continued momentum in storage deployment. Biosecurity Alert: Australia confirms H5 avian influenza in Western Australia in migratory seabirds, with surveillance ramped up and no poultry detections reported yet.

Data centres & water: AWS has signed a recycled water supply deal with Greater Western Water for its planned western Melbourne data centre, using recycled water from the Melton Recycled Water Plant—another sign the sector is chasing lower environmental footprints as it scales. Grid-scale batteries & delivery: Australia has approved the 4,800MWh Red Gully battery project, while other battery and microgrid efforts keep pushing into the “more storage, less bottleneck” phase of the transition. Solar R&D funding: ARENA has committed AU$95.4m to extend the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics to 2033, backing next-gen solar cost and performance work. Gas & LNG industrial relations: Inpex unions have reached a deal to end the Ichthys LNG strike, easing disruption risk for Australia’s LNG supply chain. Critical minerals & processing: Australia is also backing mineral processing and critical supply chains across the region, including Sri Lanka’s push to move up the value chain beyond raw exports.

Oil & Markets: Oil prices have slid back to pre-war levels after the US-Iran interim deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing shipping fears and helping lift global risk sentiment, even as investors still weigh a hawkish Fed path that’s pressuring parts of the ASX—miners and battery minerals were among the laggards. Gas Supply & Security: Queensland has welcomed a major onshore tight gas discovery in the Denison Trough (Maranoa), with gas already flowing to the domestic market and plans to expand processing and oil storage—another reminder that the East Coast’s reliability push still leans on gas. Batteries & Critical Minerals: International Graphite (IG6) is raising $4m to fund midstream graphite processing in Europe and WA, backing its Alkeemia/IG6 JV and construction at the Collie micronising facility. Clean Power Delivery: A key argument in the debate over power bills: delaying renewables, storage and transmission is what keeps costs higher, with the AEMC pointing to faster build-out as essential for affordability. WA Industry Push: Work is underway on WA’s $55m Advanced Manufacturing Technology Hub in Picton, aimed at manufacturing components for the energy transition. EV Grid Tech: Hyundai says it has completed Australia’s first V2G discharge using ISO 15118-20, signalling practical progress for bidirectional charging trials.

Carbon capture breakthrough: Australia opened its first carbon refinery, MYRTLE by MCi Carbon, capturing CO2 from Orica’s ammonia operations on Kooragang Island and turning it into products like glass and concrete, with a pathway to larger-scale capture. Rare earths push: Victory Metals launched its North Stanmore heavy rare earth pilot plant in Perth to optimise extraction and produce mixed rare earth samples for offtake partners, positioning WA for critical-minerals supply chains. LNG labour stability: INPEX confirmed an in-principle settlement ending protected industrial action at the Ichthys LNG site, with cargo loading restarting after union claims of major lost production. Grid and storage momentum: Australia approved a 4,800 MWh Red Gully battery project, while demand response trials are flagged as a route to add over 1GW of grid capacity. Policy and prices pressure: Commentary highlights that electricity prices aren’t falling as expected, and that solar and battery operators face rising friction from network charges and compliance rules. Geopolitics and energy markets: The US-Iran MOU to end the war is already easing oil fears and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts warn the global economy and energy flows may take months to normalise. Climate diplomacy: MIKTA’s Climate Dialogue 2026 in Qatar, backed by Australia, focused on accelerating climate action through international partnerships ahead of COP31.

Critical Minerals Push: Victory Metals’ North Stanmore heavy rare earth pilot plant was officially launched in Perth by Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King, aiming to optimise extraction and deliver mixed rare earth samples for potential offtake partners. Grid Reality Check: Eskom’s “no load-shedding for a year” milestone is being challenged by experts who warn the utility may be entering a death spiral as rooftop solar, private generation and wheeling erode demand and revenue. Renewables Pipeline Surge: Australia’s “probable” large-scale renewables pipeline jumped to 32GW after CIS tender registrations, with wind dominating and standalone battery storage also added. AI Power Tension (SA): Locals in Tailem Bend are pushing back on a proposed AI data centre build, saying they weren’t properly consulted and fear grid and water impacts. Energy Markets: Oil prices slid after the US-Iran interim peace deal signalled Hormuz reopening, while the Fed’s hawkish stance kept pressure on equities and the Australian dollar. LNG Outlook: Woodside is signalling higher LNG and oil sales as it starts to recoup recent investments, while Inpex Ichthys LNG union action appears to be moving toward settlement.

Network Charges Clash: Energy Minister Chris Bowen has pushed back hard on the AEMC’s plan to shift electricity network pricing from variable to fixed charges, warning it could hit the 430,000 households with rooftop solar and batteries with thousands of dollars in extra costs. LNG Strike Ends: Australian unions have reached a deal with Inpex to end strikes at the Ichthys LNG facilities, with protected industrial action stopping and cargo loading restarting after missed loadings and an estimated $200m hit. Barossa LNG Starts Shipping: JERA has received the first LNG cargo from the Barossa gas project, kicking off deliveries from Australia’s Northern Territory to Japan and supporting supply security. G7 Critical Minerals Push: G7 leaders, including Australia, backed efforts to diversify critical minerals supply chains and resist economic coercion, while calling for coordinated action against export restrictions. Middle East Oil Watch: Markets are steadying as traders look to Friday’s US-Iran peace signing and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with oil holding below US$80 and investors watching how fast shipping and supplies can normalise. El Niño Heat Risk: Australia’s weather outlook is turning hotter and drier again, with warnings that a strong El Niño could amplify extreme conditions and pressure household energy demand.

Oil & Gas Markets: Crude slid hard as reports of US-Iran steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased inflation fears, with Brent dropping below $80 and Australian bond yields easing alongside the move. Energy Security & LNG: Inpex’s Ichthys LNG operations are set to resume after unions and the company reached a deal ending strike action, reducing near-term risk to gas exports. Electricity & Safety: New reporting highlights the carbon monoxide alarm gap, warning millions of Australian homes with gas or wood appliances may lack a working detector—an urgent winter safety issue. Clean Energy Investment: International Graphite (ASX:IG6) is pushing a European graphite processing hub in Italy via a JV with Alkeemia, aiming to support energy storage and defence supply chains outside China. Grid & Storage Momentum: Australia’s battery build-out continues with new community battery work in WA and broader investment in battery networks framed as key to a modern power system. Aviation Demand Signals: Qantas’ “Project Sunrise” ultra-long-haul plan to London or New York underscores how energy and travel costs are being priced into premium demand.